A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
